Dividend Sustainability & Risk Analysis Simulator

Simulation Methodology Details

• Company Health Score Analysis
  Strong Health (80-100): +15 points

  • Indicates robust financial position
  • Strong recession resistance
  • Historical dividend stability

  Moderate Health (60-79): 0 points

  • Average financial stability
  • Some recession vulnerability
  • Mixed dividend history

  Weak Health (0-59): -15 points

  • Financial stress indicators
  • High recession sensitivity
  • Dividend sustainability concerns
• Financial Metrics Impact
  Dividend Yield Assessment:

  • 1-3%: -5 points (Sustainable)
  • 4-6%: -15 points (Caution)
  • 7%+: -30 points (High Risk)

  Payout Ratio Impact:

  • 0-50%: 0 points (Safe)
  • 51-75%: -10 points (Watch)
  • 76-100%: -25 points (Danger)

  Debt-to-Equity Analysis:

  • 0-0.5: +5 points (Conservative)
  • 0.51-1.0: -5 points (Moderate)
  • 1.01+: -20 points (Aggressive)
• Cash Flow Sustainability
  Free Cash Flow Coverage:

  • Above 2x: +15 points (Strong Coverage)
  • 1.2x-2x: +5 points (Adequate)
  • Below 1.2x: -20 points (Insufficient)

  Operating Cash Flow Quality:

  • Positive & > FCF: +10 points
  • Positive: 0 points
  • Negative: -25 points
• Recession Impact Assessment
  GDP Contraction Severity:

  • 0% to -1%: +5 points (Mild)
  • -1% to -3%: -10 points (Moderate)
  • Below -3%: -25 points (Severe)

  Interest Rate Environment:

  • 0-1%: +5 points (Supportive)
  • 1-3%: -5 points (Neutral)
  • Above 3%: -15 points (Restrictive)

  Inflation Impact:

  • 0-2%: +5 points (Low)
  • 2-5%: -10 points (Moderate)
  • Above 5%: -20 points (High)
• Additional Risk Factors
  • Historical Dividend Cuts: -20 points
  • Government Relief Impact: +0.3 points per 1% of support
  • Base Score Starts at 100 points